Published: february 21, 2010; Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

Conservatives increasingly confident, reformists soul-searching after Revolution Day.

“There were 300 of us, maximum 500. Against 10,000 people…It means they won and we lost. They defeated us. They were able to gather so many people. But this doesn’t mean we have been defeated for good. It’s a defeat for now. We need time to regroup.”

(Mortaza, 23-year old student, in an interview to AP, February 11)

During the current week, those media affiliated with the conservative camp have portrayed the reformist opposition’s failure to turn the Islamic Revolution Day into a show of power as a failure on the part of Iran’s Green Movement and as a reflection of the people’s support of the regime. Websites affiliated with the reformist opposition have admitted that the Revolution Day demonstrations, marked last Thursday, could be considered as an achievement made by the regime, stressing, however, that it was not the end of the reformist protest movement.

A commentary published on Rah-e Sabz (“The Green Path”), a website affiliated with the supporters of opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi, specified the main reasons for the opposition’s failure to turn Revolution Day into a demonstration of the protest movement’s power. The article reflected the position of many reformist opposition supporters on the opposition’s failure in the Revolution Day demonstrations, citing several factors that contributed to the failure: the inability of the Green Movement to face the numerous government supporters who took to the streets; the strong suppression measures taken by the authorities and the security forces against the opposition; as well as improper, impractical planning of opposition activities during the day, including a wrong choice of the procession route by the opposition activists.

The author of the article suggested learning the lesson from Revolution Day and adopting new tactics of civilian-popular struggle, taking into consideration the possible suppression by the authorities as it was reflected during Revolution Day (Rah-e Sabz, February 12).

The need for soul-searching was also evident in reactions to Revolution Day published on blogs affiliated with the reformist opposition supporters. One blogger admitted that the reformist opposition’s expectations from Opposition Day had not been realized, yet stressed that it was not the end of the Green Movement. Hope must not be turned into despair, and the opportunity must be used to lift the restrictions imposed on the protest movement, clearly define its goals, and improve its strategy of action.

Meanwhile, Abbas Abdi, a top reformist journalist and one of opposition leader Mehdi Karoubi’s advisors, criticized the conduct of the reformist opposition. In an interview granted this week to the Persian website of Germany’s Deutsche Welle service, Abdi blamed the opposition’s weakness on the flawed strategy it adopted in recent months. He claimed that the strategy of “taking to the streets” adopted by the Green Movement was flawed, that the slogans and demands it brought up were inconsistent, and that it had no centralized, charismatic leadership. The opposition’s failure, which became apparent in the Revolution Day processions, is an expression of its increasing weakness in recent months, Abdi said.

According to Abdi, the weakening of the movement cannot be attributed just to the suppression by the authorities, seeing as suppressing the opposition is nothing new in Iran. The major weakness of the opposition, in Abdi’s opinion, is the lack of a centralized leadership. A social movement must have a leadership, it being inconceivable that opposition supporters should take to the street with no guiding hand. What is needed is a leadership to monitor the demonstrations and to be able to respond and direct the protestors in case of clashes with the security forces. The opposition must learn the lesson from the Revolution Day processions, said Abdi, to change its strategy, and try to throw the ball into the government’s court to force it into changing its policy (Deutsche Welle in Persian, February 12).

The recognition of the need to adopt a new strategy for the Green Movement was also reflected in an interview granted this week by opposition leader Mehdi Karoubi to Britain’s Sunday Telegraph. In the interview, Karoubi said that he was soon going to meet with his colleague, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, to discuss the formulation of new strategies for the protest movement. Karoubi noted that the opposition would not give up the fight for the people’s rights, adding, however, that the proper way must be found to realize those rights (Sunday Telegraph, February 13).

On the other side of the political fence, it came as no surprise when Iran’s conservatives expressed satisfaction over the failure suffered by the reformist opposition on Revolution Day. Pro-government websites defined that day’s processions as the death of the protest movement and as a referendum proving that the overwhelming majority of the Iranian public supported the regime.

In a special message published by the Supreme Leader following Revolution Day, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed his gratitude and appreciation for the millions of Iranians who had taken part in the processions, noting that the presence of tens of millions of people in the revolution festivities was enough to awaken the enemies and the misguided within Iran, proving to them that the path of the Iranian people was the path of Islam and Imam Khomeini (various news agencies, February 12).

Hojjatoleslam Kazem Sedighi, the Friday prayer leader in Tehran, also commended the mass participation in the Revolution Day processions, defining it as an expression of unity, strength, and loyalty to the rule of the religious jurisprudent. The Iranian people proved, said Sedighi, that the propaganda spread by Iran’s enemies had no effect on their unity and solidarity. Sedighi even threatened that the tolerant policy towards those who dared bringing up false allegations against the regime would no longer be maintained (IRNA, February 12).

The ultra-conservative website Raja News defined the Revolution Day processions as a “crushing defeat” for the “inciters” and the reaction of the reformist press as an admission of that defeat. The unprecedented number of Iranians who had taken part in the processions was cause for desperation among the “green minority”, who were not willing to accept the decision of the majority in the presidential elections, Raja News claimed. It even did not take long for that desperation to trigger exchanges of accusations within the reformist movement, which also started looking for those to blame for the failure (Raja News, February 12).

The Fars news agency also extensively addressed the Revolution Day processions, saying they were clear, conclusive evidence of the opposition’s failure. The participation of millions of Iranians in support rallies for the revolution and the regime all across Iran, according to Fars, reflected the love and loyalty of the Iranian people for the regime, the Supreme Leader, and the values of the revolution. The opposition leaders and the enemies of the regime must consider the Revolution Day demonstrations a signal that their hope was extinguished and their schemes thwarted (Fars, February 12).

An editorial published in the daily Keyhan also said that the Revolution Day processions reflected the unity and strength of the Iranian people, who faced massive propaganda from the enemies of Iran. It is time, according to Keyhan, for those who vitiated the atmosphere in Iran following the elections and during the riots of recent months, and formed connections with the US and Britain, to wake up from their delusions.

The article goes on to say that now that the Western scheme to destabilize the Iranian regime has failed, the US leaders have relaunched their “Iranophobia” plans in an attempt to spread fear of Iran in the countries of the region. That is evident in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to the Persian Gulf states and the visits made by other US senior officials to Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries in an attempt to secure their support for imposing new sanctions against Iran and warn them about the threat of a nuclear Iran.

However, the Iranian people have proven time and again that despite the attempts of their enemies and the increasing pressure on their country, they stand strong alongside the regime and the country. As sanctions against Iran toughen, the Iranian people’s unity will grow and their hostility towards the West and the US will deepen (Keyhan, February 16).

Crethi Plethi

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Opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi in an interview marking the Islamic revolution’s 31st anniversary: ‘the revolution failed to abolish dictatorship in Iran’.

Published: february 07, 2010; Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

In a special interview granted last week by opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi to the reformist website Kalemeh for the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution, Mousavi said that the revolution was unable to rid Iran of dictatorship.

the Green Revolution versus the Islamic Revolution - will the green revolution fail just as the Islamic revolution failed in bringing peace and freedom for the Iranian people?

Mousavi noted that during the first years of the revolution, most Iranians were positive that it had managed to remove all structures that could lead to oppression and dictatorship. He used to believe that as well, but now he does not think so. The elements and foundations that may lead to dictatorship can once again be seen in Iran, and the signs of resistance to the return of the dictatorship have reappeared as well. That resistance, said Mousavi, is an important legacy of the Islamic revolution. The people’s refusal to accept the lies, forgery, and corruption to which we are now witness clearly reflects that legacy. The limitations imposed on the press, the mass arrests and merciless killing of protesters on the streets who peacefully fight for their rights—all that is an indication that the roots of oppression and dictatorship from the time of the royalist regime still exist. The Iranian people seek liberty and justice, knowing that arrests and executions for political ends are against the law and the Iranian constitution.

Referring to a statement made by Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati who in his last sermon had expressed approval of the execution of two opposition activists the week before last, Mousavi said that Jannati didn’t care whether the sentenced young men had had anything to do with the election affair. For him, their execution was only meant to scare the public. He doesn’t know that it was the blood of the martyrs that put an end to the Shah’s regime.

Mousavi added that, in light of the continuing oppression, he believed that the revolution did not attain its objectives. The revolution was accomplished by effort, and should the people back down from the fight for their rights, the dictatorship will only become worse than it was prior to the revolution, since dictatorship in the name of religion is the worst kind of dictatorship.

Mousavi also noted that he lost all faith in the juridical system. A judiciary which prosecutes those who seek freedom has drifted away from the goals of the revolution. Prisons are filled with the pure children of the nation, including students and lecturers, while the true criminals are outside the prison walls. Instead of looking for the real spies, honorable and faithful people are put to trial. “I am ashamed of not being one of the detainees”, said Mousavi.

Regarding the opposition demonstrations, Mousavi said that it was the people’s right to hold peaceful demonstrations and rallies. Iranians have no resentment for the security forces and the Basij, and clashes only happen when security forces resort to force to suppress the peaceful rallies. He called on the security forces to show mercy and kindness for civilians, and on supporters of the Green Movement not to single themselves out from the rest of the people. The Green Movement started with the people and it belongs to the people, Mousavi said. The beliefs and norms of the society as a whole must be respected, but one must not lose sight of the final objective: creating an advanced, independent, free, and united Iran. That goal requires the cooperation of all sections of Iranian society (Kalemeh, February 2).

Reformist opposition calls on Iranians to take part in processions ahead of Islamic revolution day; Revolutionary Guards threaten force to quell demonstrations.

Last week, the two reformist opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi called on their supporters to take to the streets and participate in the Islamic revolution anniversary processions, to be marked on February 11.

Bahman 22 (February 11) according to (judiciary chief) Sadeq Larijani - a cartoon by Nikahang Kowsar, http://www.khodnevis.org/persian, January 31.

In a meeting the two leaders held the weekend before last, both condemned the execution of two opposition activists the week before last, claiming that they had been in no way involved in the riots which broke out in Iran following the presidential elections, and that they had been arrested even before the elections. They said that the executions were meant to cause panic among Iranians ahead of the revolution day rallies. They also issued a call to release political prisoners, to lift the restrictions imposed on the media, and to hold free elections (Rah-e Sabz, January 30).

Expediency Discernment Council chairman Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani also called on Iranian citizens to take part in the February 11 rallies. He called on all political factions to turn the rallies into a demonstration of political unity, warning that any conflicts or clashes on Revolution Day would serve the interests of Iran’s enemies. The revolution anniversary has always been a symbol of the people’s unity and loyalty to the Islamic republic, Rafsanjani said (various news agencies, January 30).

Even as the two opposition leaders called on their supporters to join the Revolution Day rallies, last weekend a Revolutionary Guards senior commander warned opposition activists not to take advantage of the Revolution Day for disrupting public order. Hossein Hamedani, the Revolutionary Guards chief in Tehran Province, said that the security forces would treat anyone who chooses to protest on that day as a foreign agent rather than part of the Iranian people. At a press conference in which he presented the deployment of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran Province for the Revolution Day events, Hamedani said that the Revolutionary Guards would not allow the reformist opposition to demonstrate during the Revolution Day events. Revolution Day is not a day for protesting against the government and its policy but rather a day of national unity. According to Hamedani, the security forces would not allow the expression of any voice, color, or movement which do not reflect the Iranian people and the Islamic revolution, and will use force against anyone attempting to spark riots on that day (ISNA, January 30).

Majles speaker Ali Larijani also warned against turning the Revolution Day rallies into a venue for political bickering. He said that the Revolution Day must become a symbol of unity against foreigners and increase the strength of the Iranian people in its stand against the schemes of the US and Israel (ILNA, February 2).

Conservative Majles member Mohammad Javad Abtahi also addressed the expected participation of reformist opposition activists in the Revolution Day rallies. In an interview granted to the Asr-e Iran website, Abtahi said that there was no reason why the reformist opposition leaders and their supporters should not take part in the Revolution Day rallies, provided they did not use them for twisting the slogans of the revolution and chanting slogans contradictory to the spirit of the revolution (Asr-e Iran, February 1).

Meanwhile, the reformist website Emrouz reported last week (February 2) that security forces had massively deployed across Tehran. According to the website, the authorities act to prevent in advance any attempts by opposition elements to disturb public order on Revolution Day by creating deterrence, performing preventive arrests, carrying out sentences against those arrested in the previous riots, and extensive propaganda against the reformist opposition on official and pro-government media.

Crethi Plethi

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